As we mark the one-year anniversary of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, George W. Bush has made national security the foundation of his reelection effort. To no one’s surprise, the self-proclaimed “war president” is running on a theme of “steady leadership for changing times.” Given the traditional advantage the GOP has enjoyed with voters on defense and national security issues, the formula for electoral success seems straightforward: “President Bush made America safer.”

Except that it’s not true.

John Kerry and the Democrats can ask the American people a simple question: are you more secure now than four years ago? As with the economy, the answer won’t be welcome news to President Bush.

Security and Myopia

This is not to say that the Bush administration is completely unjustified in making claims of progress in the war on terror and enhancing American security. In Afghanistan, the Taliban regime was quickly toppled, and its remnants sent fleeing to the mountains bordering Pakistan. While Osama Bin Laden, Ayman Al-Zawahiri and Mullah Omar remain at large, Al Qaeda’s leadership ranks have been damaged and disrupted, with up to two-thirds of key personnel killed or captured. The current Iraqi quagmire aside, Saddam Hussein’s regime has been overthrown, and the brutal dictator captured. In Libya, the Qaddafi regime has sought renewed relations with the West, abandoning its nuclear program and acknowledging culpability for the Pan Am Lockerbie bombing. (This sea change, however, is apparently due more to months of joint American/British diplomacy, rather than the deterrent effect of the Iraq invasion.) And at home, the creation of the Department of Homeland Security and heightened preparation by state and local first responders mean, at least on paper, that the nation is better prepared to prevent or respond to domestic terrorist threats.

There is, however, a powerful and persuasive case to be made that the United States is now more vulnerable to attack at home and abroad under President Bush’s guidance. Bush’s wartime leadership has left America’s military overstretched, its network of alliances weakened, its credibility diminished, its international appeal in tatters and homeland defense in chaos. While the U.S. is bogged down in Iraq and an undersized American force hunts for Bin Laden, the Madrid bombings show Al Qaeda is still capable of delivering lethal blows. And all the while, festering threats and conflicts in Israel, North Korea, Taiwan, remain on a short fuse.

1. Security and Myopia
2. Insecurity Begins at Home
3. Not Fighting the Good Fight
4. Losing the Battle for Hearts and Minds