Losing the Battle for Hearts and Minds

U.S. Alliances in Tatters. Following 9/11, NATO in an unprecedented move invoked Article 5 of the NATO charter and stated that the attacks New York and Washington were an attack of NATO itself. AWACS planes flown by German crews took to American skies, the first time allied forces had been used to defend the U.S. homeland.

What a difference a year makes. France, Germany and Russia, all supportive of U.S. actions in Afghanistan, balked at the U.S. run up to the Iraq war. Unable to persuade “old Europe” with its case against Iraq, the Bush administration were left to cobble together a coalition of the needy, with Poland, Spain, Italy and Denmark substituting for the marquee NATO allies. While relations have started to thaw (President Bush met with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder after snubbing him for a year), the fall-out from the Madrid bombings leaves the EU on a path to chart a course on terrorism independent from the U.S.

American Soft Power in Decline. In the aftermath of September 11, global opinion and sympathy was clearly and solidly behind the United States. On September 12, 2001, Le Monde famously declared, “We are all Americans now.” The moral authority and military might the United States could bring to bear in the war against Al Qaeda was further bolstered by what Joseph Nye Jr. called American “soft power.” That is, the global appeal of American culture and democratic ideals enhanced the ability of the U.S. to lead, persuade, and cajole other nations to support American foreign policy goals worldwide. That intangible source of U.S. power was also enhanced by American leadership of an international network of organizations, treaties and regimes, which ensnared friends and foes alike in what Walter Russell Mead terms American “sticky power.”

That, too, seems like a distant memory now. Through its aggressive, unilateral posture and its dissembling on the Iraq WMD causus belli and its withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol, the ABM treaty, and other institutions, the Bush administration has alienated new and potential allies around the globe, and squandered a deep resevoir of good will. A new poll by the Pew Research Center shows the image of the United States is now strongly unfavorable across Europe. The declines from 2002 to today are striking, with U.S favorability dropping dramatically not only in France (63% to 31%), Germany (61% to 25%), Russia (61% to 28%) and Turkey (30% to 12%), but among coalition allies as well, including Spain (50% to 14%), Poland (79% to 50%), Italy (70% to 34%) and even the U.K. (75% to 48%). The Socialist victory in Spain in the aftermath of the Madrid bombings and Prime Minister Zapatero’s move to withdraw Spanish troops shows the volatility and weakness of the American position. America’s standing among key Muslim countries is, of course, weaker still.

American Credibility Undermined. A major factor in the world’s dim view of the United States is this administration’s almost complete lack of credibility. While the WMD panel will report next March, most of the world, if not most Americans, have concluded that President Bush’s case for war with Iraq, the need to rid Saddam of WMD, was without foundation. There was no covert Iraqi effort to purchase uranium in Niger. The Iraqi aluminum tubes were not for nuclear centrifuges. There were no mobile weapons laboratories.  (For details of the administration's deception on these and other claims, see Congressman Henry Waxman's "Iraq on the Record" report of 237 misleading statements made by Bush and his team.)

It’s not just a case of twisted intelligence and the contortion of facts. Bellicose American rhetoric is alienating allies and creating new threats. Bush’s infamous “Axis of Evil” speech inflamed relations with Iran just as grassroots pressure for reforms was gaining steam. No doubt North Korea, a real WMD threat to the United States, sees its budding nuclear arsenal as its only deterrent to U.S. attack. It is no wonder that Europe and the U.S. do not see eye-to-eye on the Iranian nuclear program.

Israeli/Palestinian Powder Keg. Unlike President Clinton, from the beginning of his own administration, President Bush refused to put his personal prestige and political capital on the line to solve the Middle East question. The result has been years of violence and thousands dead while one of the core, underlying causes of fundamentalist Islamic terrorism worsens further.

American policy towards the Israeli/Palestinian question is rudderless. After 18 months of burying his head in the sand, Bush sent Anthony Zinni as his special envoy. That non-starter was followed by his “road map” for peace, which was essentially dead on arrival. The President’s “Greater Middle East Initiative”, a Marshall Plan “Lite” for the Middle East announced to great fanfare last November, has been backburnered after opposition from both Arab and European leaders. In the meantime, the administration debates whether or not to back Ariel Sharon’s unilateral moves in Gaza and the West Bank. President Bush continues to fiddle while the Middle East burns.

Head in the Sand Foreign Policy. The Bush administration’s policy of denial in the Middle East has been accompanied by a head-in-the-sand approach to hotspots around the world. Upon taking office, Bush made it clear that the U.S. would not support South Korean rapprochement with the North, a disengagement brought to a sudden end by the nuclear crisis on the peninsula. The tensions between China and Taiwan continue to fester, a situation President Clinton monitored closely and even dispatched the U.S. Navy to control. And the administration was clearly caught off guard in Haiti; its cowardice and delay left it no alternative but to sacrifice a democratically elected Aristide, a dangerous precedent for the United States.

Weapons Proliferation. Despite improving relations with Pakistan and a major speech by President Bush on the topic, the administration record on controlling weapons proliferation is not a pretty one. Starting early in his presidency, Bush underfunded the critical Nunn-Lugar program for managing and reducing the nuclear stockpile of the former Soviet Union. While dealing with the nuclear deadlock with North Korea and the on-again/off-again IAEA inspections in Iran, he has done little to follow up on the revelations of a nuclear network led by the father of the Pakistani atomic bomb, A.Q. Khan. Apparently, Presidents Bush and Musharraf have reached a quid pro quo; the U.S. will not crack down on Pakistan and the Khan network in exchange for full Pakistani support in the hunt for Osama Bin Laden.

In a nutshell, the United States is not more secure today than four years ago. Needed homeland security enhancements continue to languish while the American military is being stretched to the limit. The entire post-World War II American alliance system is in tatters while world opinion of the United States has plummeted to historically low levels. As a result of George W. Bush’s “steady leadership”, America is feared, but not respected, hated and not admired, and even among friends, a force to be resisted, not emulated or followed. Our victories of arms can’t make up for losing the battle of hearts and minds.

1. Security and Myopia
2. Insecurity Begins at Home
3. Not Fighting the Good Fight
4. Losing the Battle for Hearts and Minds