The 2008 Iowa caucus is now one for the history books. But after just one presidential nominating contest, many of the outlines of the '08 race are becoming increasingly clear.

1. Mitt Romney is Finished
Romney's campaign was mortally wounded in Iowa. From the beginning, his entire strategy hinged on the "Iowa Effect." That is, Romney hoped to catapult from a surprise win in the Hawkeye State to an easy victory in his home turf in New Hampshire before riding a wave of media momentum into the ensuing states. A loss to John McCain in New Hampshire next week now looks certain. It is only a matter of time before he's back at his tony Belmont, Massachusetts home, checking his landscaping crew for green cards.

2. John Edwards is Probably Finished
John Edwards' hopes probably ended tonight as well. Like Romney, Edwards banked on Iowa to transform the media conventional wisdom presenting a two-person Clinton-Obama contest. Looking ahead to New Hampshire, South Carolina and beyond, it's hard to see where Edwards breaks through.

3. Huckabee's Rise is McCain's Resurrection
Huckabee's amazing performance in Iowa reflected the outsize evangelical vote in Iowa, estimated as high as 60% of GOP caucus goers in entrance polls. But Huckabee faces tough sledding in New Hampshire and an increasingly hysterical Republican establishment certain to mobilize to blunt his extremist candidacy. While Huckabee has risen, it is John McCain who is back from the dead. His third place showing in Iowa and likely win next week in New Hampshire means he, and not Mitt Romney, will battle Rudy Giuliani to stop Huckabee.

4. Hillary is Down But Not Out; Rudy is Out But Not Necessarily Down
Hillary Clinton's disappointing third place showing in Iowa is damaging, but not terminal. In what will now be billed as two-person race with Barack Obama, a victory in New Hampshire could still propel Clinton through the February 5th "Tsunami Tuesday" contests. On the Republican side, Mitt Romney's loss was Rudy Giuliani's gain. Even though it was absent from Iowa, Giuliani's stumbling national campaign gained a crucial victory with the demise of Mitt Romney.

5. Massive Democratic Turnout Bodes Well for November
The scope of the Democratic turnout was simply staggering, suggesting a party energized to end eight years of Republican misrule in November. The preliminary turnout numbers of 227,000 Democratic caucus-goers (20%of them independents) dwarfed not only the party's 2004 showing, but nearly doubled the dismal GOP performance that blessed Mike Huckabee on Thursday.

For more data, see the MSNBC Democratic and Republican exit polls.

—Perrspective 7:58 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) |

4 Comments

I think Edwards has plenty of life left. But on the GOP side, I'm pretty much with you.

Posted by Steve on January 3, 2008 9:15 PM

I'm with Steve—I'm not getting how edging out Clinton in Iowa in a fairly balanced three-way contest was anything but a good thing for Edwards?

Posted by Bart on January 3, 2008 11:35 PM

Check out this awesome Iowa Caucus post mortem analysis at http://thirdrailradio.blogspot.com/2008/01/iowa-caucus-post-mortem.html

Posted by Third Rail on January 4, 2008 2:42 AM

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