New Hampshire Post-Mortem: 5 Lessons Learned
The jaw-dropping results from New Hampshire may be in, but they produced more heat than light. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama's brief flirtation with inevitability is now over. While the Democratic nomination is firming up as a race between Obama and Clinton, chaos reigns for the GOP. There, the race to identify the anyone-but-Huckabee alternative is on.
Here, then, are five lessons learned from the New Hampshire primary:
1. Obama May Have Missed One-Time Window of Opportunity
Hillary Clinton's shocking victory wasn't merely an upset of historic proportions, a total repudiation of the polls and media conventional wisdom alike. Obama's stunning defeat derailed the media wave that could have propelled him through the Tsunami Tuesday primaries on February 5th. Obama's unique surge hinged in large measure on a media-fed psychology of momentum. Now the irresistible force (Obama) will have to face the immovable object (Clinton) in a down and dirty fight that will test just how battle hardened each is. This is not to say that Obama can't or won't win the nomination, but that his one chance to steamroll to the convention has slipped away.
2. The End is Nigh for John Edwards
Last night, Edwards proclaimed, "I am in this race to the convention...I intend to be the nominee of my party." As I suggested even after his impressive second place showing in Iowa, it is hard to see how that can come to pass. His claim before the New Hampshire vote that he and Barack Obama were engaged in a two man race was wishful thinking then and certainly invalidated now with Clinton's win on Tuesday. Despite running perhaps the most honest and aggressive campaign among the Democrats, Edwards trails badly in Florida and even South Carolina, the only state he carried in 2004. He may be in it, but he won't win it.
3. McCain Snatches Defeat from the Jaws of Victory
As I predicted last week, the body blow Mike Huckabee dealt to Mitt Romney in Iowa helped catapult John McCain in New Hampshire. But McCain's doddering, rambling victory speech Tuesday night sucked the life from even the most ardent supporter. That performance suggests that Mac may not be back, and that rumors of his resurrection may have been exaggerated.
4. Romney Not Dead Yet, Giuliani Not at All Well
After Iowa, I confidently predicted that Mitt Romney's dual defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire, two states central to his early state strategy, meant his campaign for all intents and purposes was finished. But that conclusion may have been premature; in what may become a Republican race to produce a palatable alternative to Mike Huckabee (more below), the wide open field and Romney's deep pockets may (or may not) keep him going. Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani's candidacy continues to flounder. Staying out of Iowa and New Hampshire kept him out of the media and now has left him trailing in Michigan, South Carolina and Florida. By the time he hits national primary on February 5th, a winless Giuliani could be running on fumes.
5. The Race to Find the Huckabee Alternative is On
In a normal election year, Mitt Romney, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson would be teetering on the edge of the abyss. But this isn't a normal year. The surging campaign of the affable but extremist Mike Huckabee is poised to do very well in the next three contests in Michigan, South Carolina and Florida. It is not inconceivable that he could win all three. A hysterical GOP establishment (the National Review's Rich Lowry called a Huckabee nomination "act of suicide by his party") and the wide open field mean that the other candidates, though beaten and bruised, are still alive in the emerging race to present a reasonable alternative to Mike Huckabee's crusade to "take this nation back for Christ."
—Perrspective
12:55 PM Permalink
Lay off John Edwards. This thing is far from over.
I second the sentiment Derek.
It is Edwards populist message that is causing Obama and now Hillary to start parroting him. He has a powerful message to keep going on and if it starts to steamroll then he is going to be a potent person to beat.
The MSM has shut him out because corporate America cannot afford to have him as President. So he gains little by little, by word of mouth and the word continuously spreading on the Net.
He'll keep Borack and Hillary singing praise to a populist idea even though Edwards is the only one who is not taking special interest money.
"Despite running perhaps the most honest and aggressive campaign among the Democrats"
I would like to third Derek and TJ.
We can all acknowledge things need to change; yet we seem to endear ourselves to more of the same. Edwards is running an honest and aggressive campaign, unlike the so called winners, and yet there are predictions of his demise?
Perhaps we could stop being stupid Americans and consider the message.
Derek, TJ, Valerie,
Please don't confuse my concerns over the viability of John Edwards campaign with my beliefs about his candidacy and message.
I'm not saying that Edwards campaign is in trouble because it deserves to be. Far from it. The issue is merely that the conventional media narrative, its endless depiction of "momentum" and "expectations" and the condensed primary schedule all bode ill for Edwards future.
His message should be heard. Unfortunately, I don't think it will be.
Interesting post. After Sen. Clinton’s unforeseen NH victory, many people are questioning the pollsters. There is so much to consider when exploring what goes into political polling. Predicting elections is one of the most difficult challenges in survey work. Generally speaking, election surveys actually do work fairly well (it's worth remembering that the polling on the Republican side in New Hampshire was pretty accurate). For all their flaws, surveys are still one of the best available tools for figuring out what the public wants. Check out our Public Agenda blog at http://publicagenda.org/headlines/headlines_blog.cfm for more on this!
|
