George W. Bush's Gambling Problem
While George W. Bush may be a recovering drinker, he apparently has now developed a gambling problem. Just 10 days into 2008, the Bush White House has placed big bets on everything from a Middle East peace treaty to the prospects for a U.S. recession, even his own popularity and legacy. Unfortunately, the odds are stacked against him - and us.
Bush's most unlikely roll of the dice came during his just completed visit to Israel and the Palestinian territories. While his discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas failed to advance the much-hyped Annapolis process, President Bush confidently predicted an Israeli-Palestinian peace treaty would be signed within one year:
"I believe it's going to happen, that there will be a signed peace treaty by the time I leave office...I'm on a timetable. I've got 12 months."
Analysts and interested parties of all stripes could be forgiven their skepticism. Even after essentially adopting the Clinton formula he previously rejected including (compensation to Palestinian refugees instead of the "right of return"), Bush faces a tough road with Hamas. (The fact that the official State Department chronology of the Middle East peace process never mentions Hamas doesn't help matters any.) Predictably, Hamas prime minister in Gaza, Ismail Haniya, labeled Bush's proposals "unacceptable." Ali Jarbawi, a political scientist at Birzeit University, concluded simply, "It will be extremely difficult for any Palestinian leader to accept all three [no return to the '67 borders, no return for refugees, no return of all East Jerusalem]."
Back at home, economic analysts and Wall Street watchers are growing increasingly worried about the prospects of a recession in the U.S. The dismal housing market, the jump in unemployment to 5%, $100 a barrel oil and record-low consumer confidence are combining to produce grim economic forecasts for 2008.
But not at the Bush White House. Despite an emerging consensus about the dangers looming for the U.S. economy, White House spokesman Tony Fratto on Monday said the Bush administration sees no recessionary icebergs ahead.
QUESTION: Senator Clinton said on Saturday that the U.S. economy was slipping towards a recession. Is that a view the White House shares; why or why not?
FRATTO: I don't know of anyone predicting a recession.
As ThinkProgress documents, Warren Buffett, Lawrence Summers, Martin Feldstein, the National Association for Business Economics and CBO chief Peter Orzag are just some of the names predicting that a recession is "more likely than not." But on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson contradicted the assessment of his own former employer, Goldman Sachs. While Paulson claimed, "I think that we're facing some strong headwinds, but the economy's going to continue to grow," Goldman Sachs concluded the next day that "the latest data suggest that recession has now arrived, or will very shortly." (On Thursday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke took the unusual step of telegraphing future interest rate cuts "to counter any adverse dynamics that might threaten economic or financial stability.")
Just in case, Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez assured Americans last week, "the president is always looking at options." Chief among those options, of course, is tax cuts, President Bush's one-size-fits all solution for deficits, surpluses, expansion, recession and probably even the common cold.
Despite the unending bad news for President Bush regarding Iraq, the economy, corruptions scandals and more, his allies are offering another mind-bending prediction. As US News detailed, the White House and the GOP are forecasting Bush's approval rating will catapult from its perpetually dismal plateau in the 30's to a merely awful 45% by the time he leaves office:
His fans have dubbed it his "legacy year," when they hope to lock in his achievements on the domestic front. Among the items Bush's GOP congressional allies want to work on this month: continuing his tax cuts and extending the controversial No Child Left Behind Act. As for the war, they say, the news has been good, and Bushies believe that their guy will eventually get credit for opening the war on terrorism. But more immediately, they are predicting a remarkable poll shift to about 45 percent favorable by the time he leaves office next year.
Just before departing on his trip to the Middle East, President Bush offered the ultimate prediction. While Bush earlier described his mission to "replenish the ol' coffers" after leaving the White House, last Friday he gazed into the crystal ball regarding his legacy:
"I can predict that the historians will say that George W. Bush recognized the threats of the 21st century, clearly defined them, and had great faith in the capacity of liberty to transform hopelessness to hope, and laid the foundation for peace by making some awfully difficult decisions."
That, of course, is yet one more bet George W. Bush will lose. But having previously gambled with Americans' lives, treasure and international standing, President Bush has already made losers of us all.
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This is a great round up. These guys in the Bush White House are smoking something.
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