Gaza Violence Puts Bush Peace Promise in Peril
324. That's the number of days left for George W. Bush to deliver on his January pledge of a signed Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement. But what seemed like Bush's cockeyed optimism just weeks ago now verges on fantasy. With Israeli forces and Hamas fighters battling in Gaza, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Sunday announced the suspension of peace talks. As a result, President Bush's better-late-than-never engagement seems certain to be added to his eve-growing list of foreign policy failures.
Bush's boast came during his first visit to Israel and the Palestinian territories in January. While his discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas failed to advance the much-hyped Annapolis process launched in November, President Bush confidently predicted an Israeli-Palestinian peace treaty would be signed within one year:
"I believe it's going to happen, that there will be a signed peace treaty by the time I leave office...I'm on a timetable. I've got 12 months."
Analysts and interested parties of all stripes could be forgiven their skepticism. Even after essentially adopting the Clinton formula he previously rejected (including compensation to Palestinian refugees instead of the "right of return"), Bush faced a tough road with Hamas. (The fact that the official State Department chronology of the Middle East peace process never mentions Hamas doesn't help matters any.) Predictably, Hamas prime minister in Gaza, Ismail Haniya, labeled Bush's proposals "unacceptable." Ali Jarbawi, a political scientist at Birzeit University, concluded simply, "It will be extremely difficult for any Palestinian leader to accept all three [no return to the '67 borders, no return for refugees, no return of all East Jerusalem]."
Speaking at Princeton University on Friday, Jordan's King Abdullah was guardedly optimistic about the prospects for a Middle East peace.
"We are in the best possible position to resolve 60 years of conflict between Israel and Palestine. The Arab and Muslim states have committed to an unprecedented and unanimous peace initiative...But time is running out and we need the United States of America completely involved, to influence the course of discussions, monitor progress, and help bridge the gaps to ensure a final agreement by the end of 2008."
But Abdullah's remarks also contained a warning. Failure by the Bush administration to achieve a comprehensive settlement, he said, could see the peace process "set back, perhaps for decades."
And that assessment, sadly, came before the recent explosion of violence in Gaza.
Even as Abdullah was headed to the United States, the Israelis were threatening an invasion of Gaza after recent Hamas rocket attacks on Sderot and Ashkelon. On Saturday, the IDF sent its troops into Gaza. Over 100 people have been killed in the subsequent fighting.
Just two weeks after Prime Minister Olmert and President Abbas last met, the rhetoric on both sides is rapidly escalating. On Saturday, Olmert spokesman Mark Regev stated, "You can't overstate the importance of the shooting on Ashkelon", adding, "This is a major Israeli city that is now being targeted by the rockets." On Sunday, Olmert told his cabinet, "With all due respect, nothing will prevent us from continuing operations to protect our citizens." And in an interview on Army Radio, Barak proclaimed "overthrowing the Hamas government" as one of the goals of the Israeli operation.
The response from both Abbas' Fatah government and its Hamas rivals has been fierce - and hyperbolic. Chief Palestinian negotiator Ahmed Qureia said: "This is a massacre of civilians, women and children - genocide." Abbas himself declared, "The response to these rockets can't be that harsh and heinous," adding, "It is nowadays described as a holocaust." And in Damascus, exiled Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal called the Israeli incursion "the real Holocaust."
Diplomatic efforts are struggling to keep with the violence spiraling out of control in Gaza. The UN Security Council called on both sides to "to immediately cease all acts of violence," while General Secretary Ban Ki-Moon accused Israel of using "excessive force."
For its part, the Bush administration is preparing to dispatch Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice back to the region. But while halting the violence is challenge enough, the prospects of getting the Annapolis process back on track seem remote. As for President Bush's promise to negotiate a signed peace agreement by the time he leaves office, time is running out.
He only has 324 days left.
UPDATE: As of Monday morning, Israel has halted its operations in Gaza, at least for now.
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Yet another person who must listen to NPR - National Palestine Radio.
Posted by Samuel on March 2, 2008 9:43 PM