Tomorrow's Headlines Today
As Democrats in Texas and Ohio vote in what could be the decisive primaries today, polls suggest late movement towards Hillary Clinton. But while the outcomes in those key contests may be in doubt, the media's coming interpretation of them is not. In all likelihood, Wednesday's headlines will proclaim Hillary Clinton lost even in victory.
Both the Obama and Clinton camps have been frantically "pre-spinning" the March 4th primaries. For its part, the Clinton team has announced that anything less than a four-state sweep by Obama today represents voters' rejection of Obamania. Obama's campaign and supporters have countered that nothing Hillary Clinton does on Tuesday can alter the grim delegate calculus leading inexorably to her defeat. Short of 20 point wins in both Texas and Ohio, they contend, Clinton simply can't make up lost ground. Adding grist to their mill is Tom Brokaw's revelation that 50 Democratic superdelegates stand poised to publicly announce their support for Barack Obama.
Of course, should Clinton lose both the Buckeye and Lone Star states, the race is, for all intents and purposes, over. The reality of delegate math and the demands of party unity would require at least the suspension of her campaign. Even a split will trigger media calls for Hillary to step aside, even if polls suggest Democratic voters feel otherwise.
But for students of media conventional wisdomology, the real fun begins should Hillary Clinton take both states. (Despite the dubious track record of conflicting polls which remain all over the map, I'm going to stick my neck out and predict Clinton by 8% in Ohio and 3% in Texas. For the sake of preempting the predictable flame wars, I should note that I'm not a Hillary supporter.)
In almost any other year, twin victories in Ohio and Texas by Senator Clinton after 11 straight primary losses would be viewed as putting a brake on Obama's momentum and fundamentally changing the dynamic of the campaign. News stories and analyses would proclaim "It's Anybody's Race," "We've Got a New Ballgame," and "Fight to the Finish." Those fond of analogies to the 1984 campaign would point to Walter Mondale's wins in just two out of 9 March Super Tuesday states being seen as firewalls that blunted Gary Hart's surge. As it turned out, subsequent Hart stumbles in Illinois, New York and New Jersey ultimately cost him the nomination in the ensuing slugfest. Normally, two key Obama losses combined with the NAFTA quagmire, the still-murky Rezko affair and the possibility of future Obama missteps would be sufficient for the media to pronounce a change in the campaign dynamic.
But not this year. Press and pundits have been writing Hillary Clinton's political obituary since her thumping in Wisconsin. Having already concluded that the delegate math and lack of remaining big state primaries (unlike 1984) make a Clinton comeback virtually impossible, tomorrow's headlines have already been written. (For just one example, see MSNBC's Keith Olbermann, who just last night questioned her "long term viability" and scoffed that "the threshold for Senator Clinton seems to be lowering every day, what is all right for her to go on, what justifies it.")
So, even if Hillary Clinton emerges triumphant in Texas and Ohio by the margins I suggested above, Wednesday's headlines will look something like this:
- "Too Little, Too Late"
- "Clinton Sweeps Texas and Ohio; Pressure to Drop Out Builds"
- "Sorry Bill: Close But No Cigar"
- "Despite Texas Win, It's Adios Hillary"
- "Obama's Buckeye Beat Down Not Enough to Save Hillary"
- "Memo to Hillary; Denial is Not a River in Egypt"
On Monday, a seemingly reenergized Hillary Clinton proclaimed, "I'm just getting warmed up." But almost regardless of what she does tonight, the media will likely conclude that it doesn't matter.
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If you're right tonight, we'll never hear the end of Hillary proclaiming "I'm the comeback kid!"
Posted by Jesse on March 4, 2008 12:50 PM