Poll: Sharp Partisan Divide on Character vs. Issues in '08 Race
Just one day after I analyzed poll data suggesting an early lead for John McCain lead in the 2008 presidential "character war," a new survey from Rasmussen delivered some bad news for the GOP. By a 52% to 36% margin, the Americans surveyed contend that a candidate's policies on the issues matter more than his or her character. Unsurprisingly, Republicans responded that character counts most. Unsurprising, that is, because given Americans' overwhelming preference for Democratic positions and priorities, the GOP simply cannot win a 2008 election decided on the issues.
The Rasmussen findings show a sharp partisan cleavage over the importance of candidate's policies versus character. By a two-to-one margin, Democrats said policy positions matter most. But Republican respondents argued the reverse, with character trumping issues by 49% to 43%. Among independents, policy proposals rank as more important, by 49% to 32%. As a result, the Rasmussen poll showed a dramatic advantage for the Democratic Party in a generic presidential match-up:
"The survey found that 48% of the nation's adults are inclined to vote for a Democratic Presidential candidate while 34% prefer a Republican."
Which is precisely why the Republican Party cannot let the 2008 election be about the issues.
As Rasmussen suggests, thus far the GOP has been very successful in converting the White House race into a personality contest in which the supposed "maverick" John McCain is amazingly competitive at a time of almost universal disdain for his party and its policies:
"In fact, one of the most significant stories so far in Election 2008 is the way that John McCain significantly outperforms the Republican brand. On a series of key issues, the Democrats are trusted more than the GOP but McCain is trusted more than either Democrat."
As I noted earlier this week, John McCain has been the beneficiary of both the bitter (and endless) Democratic race and the seeming imperviousness of the media's McCain Maverick Myth. For example, on the economy, Americans prefer Democrats over Republicans by 48% to 40%. Yet in head-to-head matchups, voters say they trust John McCain over both Hillary Clinton (47% to 42%) and Barack Obama (46% to 39%). Those findings are consistent with the outcome of the recent AP/Yahoo survey. Despite John McCain's repeated admissions that "the issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should," right now Americans trust him more than his Democratic rivals on the issue they consider most important in 2008. On Iraq, national security and taxes as well, McCain is also seen as more trustworthy.
Sadly, we've been here before. In 2000 and 2004, the Republican Party succeeded both in portraying the presidential contest as being about character and in defining the accepted media narrative for candidates Bush, Gore and Kerry. (For more background, Jonathan Chait's book The Big Con provides an illuminating and disturbing analysis of the GOP's victories as a "machine that manufactures images of character.")
The data is clear. If the election is about the economy, health care and Iraq, John McCain cannot become the 44th president. Only if the GOP succeeds once again in transforming the race into a media medley about lapel pins, angry ministers and Muslim-sounding middle names can the Republicans hope to maintain their hold on the White House.
All the more reason why the Democratic Party needs to end its interminable nomination battle and begin the demolition of the Maverick Myth of John McCain. To win the war for the White House, Democrats need to win the battles for Americans' hearts - and minds.
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