Five Lessons Learned on Election Day 2008
No doubt, the sweeping victory of Barack Obama was a historic milestone for the American people. But while Obama defied the odds and shattered stereotypes, the exit polls suggest his election confirmed as much conventional wisdom as it upended.
Here, then, are five lessons learned from the 2008 election:
Taxation with Representation. During the campaign, Barack Obama repeatedly stated, "if you make $200,000 a year or less, your taxes will go down." Apparently, voters making more than $200,000 were just fine with that; they supported Obama over McCain by 52% to 46%. (In 2004, Americans whose incomes topped $200k backed George W. Bush over John Kerry by 63% to 35%.) As it turned out, both McCain and Obama supporters by similar margins expected to see their taxes go up. At the end of the day, Americans rejected the Republicans' "socialism" slander.
Expanded Democratic Support Among White Voters. As I suggested Monday, the first major African-American nominee of the Democratic Party surpassed the performance of John Kerry, Al Gore and even Bill Clinton among white voters. Barack Obama secured 43% of the white vote, compared to 41% for Kerry, 42% for Gore, and 43% for Bill Clinton in 1996. Obama made substantial gains among white men, losing by16% (57% to 41%) to McCain while Kerry and Gore lost by 25 and 24 points to Bush, respectively. Importantly, the composition of the American electorate is changing dramatically, with white Americans now constituting only 74% of those casting ballots compared to 83% twelve years ago.
Obama Landslide Among Hispanic Voters. In the wake of his primary battles with Hilary Clinton, the chattering classes predicted tough sledding for Barack Obama among the nation's 43 million Hispanic voters. That simply did not come to pass. Obama routed McCain among Latinos by two-to-one (66% to 32%), a margin critical to his wins in former red states like New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. No doubt, the xenophobic, anti-immigrant rhetoric of the Republican Party produced a blowback that more than erased its 2004 performance (44%) under George W. Bush. So much for Ronald Reagan's admonition that, "Latinos are Republican. They just don't know it yet."
Ditto for Jewish Voters. Among Jewish voters, too, Barack Obama enjoyed support at roughly the same level as Democrats past. Despite the fear-mongering of the McCain campaign and state GOP operatives, Obama dominated among Jews by 78% to 21%. By way of comparison, John Kerry (74% to 25% for Bush) and Al Gore (80% to 17%) scored about the same as Barack Hussein Obama with American Jews. (Unsurprisingly, despite all of Barack Obama's outreach efforts, white evangelicals remained a GOP monolith by a staggering 50 points, little changed from the 57% delta four years ago.)
Obama Wave Among New Voters. As predicted, Barack Obama captured the overwhelming majority of new voters. First-timers, 11% of all voters on Tuesday, supported Obama by 69% to 30%. That was reflected in Obama's dominance among younger voters, where he carried those ages 18 to 24 and 25 to 29 by 34% and 35%, respectively. Overall, however, voters under 30 did not see major gains as percentage of the total electorate. They made up 18% of voters in 2008 compared to 17% in 2004 and 2000.
UPDATE: The New York Times offers an interactive exit poll tool comparing presidential election results from 1980 through 2008.
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Really helpful summary. I think your point about Obama's performance among white voters is really important and gets overlooked.
Posted by Cliff on November 6, 2008 9:22 AM